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Global Crisis, Recession & Uneven Recovery

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Global Crisis, Recession and Uneven Recovery

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The world economy has come a long way since the global financial crisis a decade ago that infected all major financial markets and set off a global recession. Unconventional monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy helped the advanced economies to slowly get back on their feet, although the specter of deflation has only recently been vanquished.

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Emerging market economies survived the initial phase of the crisis in better shape, bolstered by a surge of investment-driven growth in China. Many of these economies have faltered in recent years, even as the advanced economies gradually settle into stable growth trajectories. Many countries have undertaken important reforms to financial, labor, and product markets, although these have generally fallen short of the deep-rooted structural reforms necessary to durably bolster productivity and output growth.

This note evaluates the progress made by key advanced and emerging market economies since the financial crisis in several dimensions. Cross-country comparisons reveal a few surprising results that go against the grain of conventional narratives.

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For instance, despite a sharp fall in the unemployment rate and bullishness about American employment growth, the U. Meanwhile, the employment rates of other major advanced economies have risen significantly.

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There are also some important disconnects between the performance of equity markets and macroeconomic variables such as GDP, both within advanced economies and between advanced and emerging market economies. While a great deal of progress has been made in repairing financial and labor markets, the limited and incomplete nature of structural reforms in many economies leaves open the possibility that financial pressures and macroeconomic stresses could be lurking under the surface.

The U. Among emerging market economies, China and India have seen strong gains in real GDP, while Brazil and Russia have made little progress. When measured on a per capita or per working-age person basis, real GDP growth in the U. Stock markets in most other advanced economies have also risen a lot more than GDP. Equity markets have, for the most part, not taken a big hit from trade wars, political turmoil, geopolitical tensions, and other shocks that would normally generate far more volatility in these markets.

Bond markets appear less sanguine; the flattening of the U. Treasury yield curve is a worrying portent.